Pre-tourney Rankings
Sun Belt
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
54 Middle Tennessee 14.7%   24 - 6 14 - 2 24 - 6 14 - 2 +8.2      +2.9 98 +5.3 32 67.2 177 +9.4 45 +9.1 1
79 Denver 0.0%   22 - 9 11 - 5 22 - 9 11 - 5 +6.4      +5.5 47 +0.9 142 57.6 331 +5.0 100 +2.6 3
159 North Texas 0.0%   15 - 14 9 - 7 15 - 14 9 - 7 +0.7      -1.2 211 +1.9 120 72.8 55 -0.6 177 +0.1 5
183 Arkansas Little Rock 0.0%   14 - 16 12 - 4 14 - 16 12 - 4 -1.0      -3.0 254 +2.0 117 65.5 222 -0.9 181 +5.8 2
188 Western Kentucky 100.0%   16   15 - 18 7 - 9 15 - 18 7 - 9 -1.5      -2.6 243 +1.1 138 72.4 63 -1.0 183 -3.3 8
193 Arkansas St. 0.0%   13 - 20 6 - 10 13 - 20 6 - 10 -1.7      +0.6 151 -2.3 247 61.3 301 -2.8 209 -4.8 9
198 Louisiana 0.0%   15 - 15 10 - 6 15 - 15 10 - 6 -1.9      -6.0 302 +4.1 66 75.8 28 -0.7 179 +2.0 4
205 South Alabama 0.0%   16 - 12 8 - 8 16 - 12 8 - 8 -2.1      -1.0 203 -1.0 203 67.4 174 +0.8 158 -1.4 6
208 Florida Atlantic 0.0%   10 - 19 7 - 9 10 - 19 7 - 9 -2.4      -1.6 220 -0.7 194 65.3 227 -3.1 217 -2.7 7
231 Florida International 0.0%   8 - 20 5 - 11 8 - 20 5 - 11 -3.8      -2.4 237 -1.4 217 64.8 240 -6.2 266 -5.9 11
267 Troy 0.0%   9 - 18 5 - 11 9 - 18 5 - 11 -6.2      +1.4 132 -7.5 333 73.1 50 -4.6 242 -5.9 10
309 Louisiana Monroe 0.0%   3 - 25 2 - 14 3 - 25 2 - 14 -10.5      -4.0 279 -6.5 324 64.7 245 -13.5 323 -11.3 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Middle Tennessee 1.0 100.0
Denver 3.0 100.0
North Texas 5.0 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 2.0 100.0
Western Kentucky 7.0 100.0
Arkansas St. 9.0 100.0
Louisiana 4.0 100.0
South Alabama 6.0 100.0
Florida Atlantic 7.0 100.0
Florida International 10.0 100.0
Troy 10.0 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 12.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Middle Tennessee 14 - 2 100.0
Denver 11 - 5 100.0
North Texas 9 - 7 100.0
Arkansas Little Rock 12 - 4 100.0
Western Kentucky 7 - 9 100.0
Arkansas St. 6 - 10 100.0
Louisiana 10 - 6 100.0
South Alabama 8 - 8 100.0
Florida Atlantic 7 - 9 100.0
Florida International 5 - 11 100.0
Troy 5 - 11 100.0
Louisiana Monroe 2 - 14 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Middle Tennessee 100.0% 100.0
Denver
North Texas
Arkansas Little Rock
Western Kentucky
Arkansas St.
Louisiana
South Alabama
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Troy
Louisiana Monroe


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Middle Tennessee 14.7% 0.0% 14.7% 0.3 4.5 8.3 1.5 0.0 85.3 14.7%
Denver 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Western Kentucky 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 100.0
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Middle Tennessee 14.7% 14.5% 7.8% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Denver 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Texas 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas Little Rock 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 100.0% 99.7% 60.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arkansas St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Alabama 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Atlantic 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Troy 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Monroe 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 85.2 14.8
1st Round 63.7% 0.7 36.3 59.1 4.6
2nd Round 3.9% 0.0 96.1 3.9 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0